India monsoon to be normal this year


Staff member
New Delhi: India's monsoon is likely to be normal with 98 per cent of the expected rainfall, Science and Technology Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said on Tuesday.

"India Meteorological Department's long range forecast for the 2011 southwest monsoon season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal, which is 96 to 104 per cent of the long period average," Bansal said.

5% error margin

"There is very low probability for the season's rainfall to be deficient, which is below 90 per cent, or excess, which is above 110 per cent. Quantitatively, the monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average with a model error of five per cent," he added.

The IMD said it would update the forecast in June. Separate forecasts for July and August rainfall across the country and June-September rainfall over the four geographical regions of India would also be issued.

IMD director general Ajit Tyagi, said: "The temperature gradient is not building up as of now but temperature is expected to rise in the coming days."